上世纪 90 年代,中国将对美关系视作中国外交的“重中之重”,而在美方看来,对华关系是美国重要的双边关系之一。

21 世纪,奥巴马政府第一个提出中美关系是美国最重要的双边关系。当然,中美关系的重要性并不仅仅来自美国执政者的主观认识,归根到底,是由于中国力量的上升和国际影响力的扩大。

中美未来 20 年关系如何演变?机遇与风险并存!

近十几年来的历史表明:中美关系发展得好,不仅可以造福两国人民和各国人民,甚至有利于世界和地区的和平、稳定、繁荣。

据此,就有外国网友提问:未来 20 年,美中关系将如何演变?

1、Paul Denlinger

It depends on how stupid America wants to be. In my opinion, the current bad relationship is based on the bad behavior of the United States.

这取决于美国有多蠢。在我看来,目前的不良关系是基于美国的不良行为。

The United States has made a serious mistake of hoping that the relationship between the two countries will continue as it has for the past 40 years, and assuming that the relationship between the two countries can continue on the current track without any changes. It's like a couple thinking that their marriage is like their entire honeymoon, but that's not the case.

美国犯了一个严重的错误,即希望两国关系像过去 40 年那样继续下去,并假定两国关系可以在目前的轨道上继续下去,而不发生任何变化。就像一对夫妇认为他们的婚姻就像他们整个蜜月,但事实并非如此。

As a result, trump used the trade war as a media tool to incite his voter base. Of course, China will not accept the unreasonable demands of the United States, so the conflict broke out!

因此,特朗普利用贸易战作为媒体工具,煽动他的选民基础。当然,中国不会接受美国的无理要求,于是冲突爆发了!

中美未来 20 年关系如何演变?机遇与风险并存!

What is the final result of this? The rise of China will be tortuous, and the decline of the United States will be tortuous. China's growth will be more difficult because it is more unstable rather than stable, because Trump's entire presidency is based on catering to American nationalism.This is what happened when nationalism rose. Goddamn hormone wars!

最后的结果是什么?中国的崛起将是曲折的,美国的衰落将是曲折的。中国的增长将更加困难,因为它更不稳定,而不是稳定,因为特朗普的整个总统任期都是基于迎合美国的民族主义。这就是民族主义兴起时的情形。该死的荷尔蒙战争!

2、Paul Denlinger

There is a saying in the United States that "a big tree can never hide an elephant". Before China launched a trade war to fight back, the United States has continued a decade of provocation!Yes, China can't hide any more. This is the most real situation at present!

在美国有一句谚语,“大树藏不住大象”。在中国发动贸易战反击之前,美国已经持续了十年的挑衅!对,中国确实没法再隐藏,这是目前最真实的情况!

3、Chow Po Sun

Yes, in the face of American provocation, China fought back!The method may be too hard handed and unsmooth but it''s necessary.But China is too hard-lined in approach which I agree leaves much to be desired, but at least people can now claim themselves be Chinese more confidently. At least compared to Hong Kong right now (which I would claim it''s what would happen to China?)

是的,面对美国的挑衅,中国反击了!这种方法可能过于生硬和不流畅,但它是必要的。但是中国的态度太强硬了,我也认为还有很多地方需要改进,但至少人们现在可以更自信地宣称自己是中国人了。

4、Asia Nicks

What are you saying? Is there any problem with the brave counterattack in the face of provocation? You have also admitted that all the bad situations are caused by the United States. Instead of blaming the perpetrators for their irrationality, you criticize the bravery of the rebels instead?

你这是什么话?难道面对挑衅的勇敢反击也有问题吗?你自己也承认了一切不好的局面都是美国挑动的,你不去责难施暴者的无理,反倒批评反抗者的勇敢?

中美未来 20 年关系如何演变?机遇与风险并存!

5、Jianfeng Zhang

I agree about China and The US will not going to coopertion in the foreseeable future.

我同意中美在可预见的未来不会进行合作。

But The US hasn’t yet had a record of direct conflict with a major power of the same level or near the same level.Not to mention that both country are nuclear powers.The people in chrge must be clear about that than us common.

但美国还没有与同一级别或接近同一级别的大国发生直接冲突的记录。更不用说这两个国家都是核大国。

So personally,I''m not worry about the future very much.

掌权者比我们普通人更清楚这一点。所以就我个人而言,我不太担心未来。

6、Tommy Back

Badly. This is more than a trade war.

糟透了。这不仅仅是一场贸易战。

Listen to the speeches by Steve Bannon Peter Navarro and John Bolton. The US and the collective west have finally woken up to the fact that for 400 years they had dominated the world; grabbed territories wherever they went, exploited resources, enslaved people, they had a good run. First the Portuguese and the Spanish, then the French and finally the Godzilla - Britannica.

请听史蒂夫·班农、彼得·纳瓦罗和约翰·博尔顿的演讲。美国和西方集体终于意识到,他们主宰世界已有 400 年 ; 无论他们走到哪里,他们都攫取领土,开发资源,奴役人民,他们过得很好。一开始是葡萄牙和西班牙,然后是法国,最后是哥斯拉——不列颠。

The British Empire ruled by Britain for more than 200 years; then the baton was passed on to a new more powerful member of the Anglo sphere - America. The West finally imploded in WW2 like cowboy bank robbers retreating to the desert and shooting at one another when they failed to agree on sharing the loot.

大英帝国被不列颠统治了 200 多年。然后,接力棒又传给了盎格鲁势力范围中一个更强大的新成员——美国。西方最终在二战中崩溃了,就像牛仔抢银行的劫匪撤退到沙漠里,当他们无法就分享战利品达成一致时,他们就互相开枪。

中美未来 20 年关系如何演变?机遇与风险并存!

The Collective West came to their senses and decided enough is enough. They decolonized; set up global institutions; embarked on globalization, promoted free trade, advanced democracy to prevent another world war.

西方集体意识到,该适可而止了。他们开始非殖民地化、设立全球性机构、开始全球化、促进自由贸易、推进民主以防止另一场世界大战。

The US managed to bring down 3 challengers; first Germany, Japan, then the Soviet unx. But these 3 powers were not on par with the US. Germany had a powerful military but a weak economy. Japan had a powerful economy but it has only less than one third the population of the US. The Soviet unx has an economy about 25% of the US.

美国击败了 3 名挑战者,先是德国,日本,然后是苏联。但这三个大国并不与美国平起平坐。德国拥有强大的军事力量,但经济疲软。日本曾是一个强大的经济体,但其人口只有美国的不到三分之一。苏联的经济规模大约是美国的 25%。

Then came the rise of China under the radar. While the west were distracted first by the Cold War, then the war on terrorism, then the Great Recession. For 30 years, Trump and his hawks finally saw China for what it is, a country with 4 times the US population and twice the population of the Collective West. A country that had copied most of the western technologies that had enabled the west to subjugate the world for 4 centuries.

然后,中国在眼皮下崛起了。当西方的注意力首先被冷战,然后是反恐战争,然后是大衰退分散时。30 年来,特朗普和他的鹰派终于看清了中国的本来面目,这个国家的人口是美国的 4 倍,是西方人口总和的两倍。一个复制了大部分西方技术的国家,而正是这些技术使得西方能够征服世界长达 4 个世纪。

中美未来 20 年关系如何演变?机遇与风险并存!

To Bannon its now or never. If the west does not stop China''s rise now, there will be no other chance. Both the Democrats and the Republicans share this same view. So this is NOT a simple trade war. It won''t be business as usual henceforth. It will be a new cold war between the West and China, that will persist for the next 20-30 years.

对班农来说,机不可失,时不再来。如果西方现在不阻止中国的崛起,就没有其他机会了。民主党人和共和党人都持有同样的观点。所以这不是一场简单的贸易战。从今以后,生意就不会像以前那样了。这将是一场西方与中国之间的拉锯,将持续 20-30 年。

Globalization will be scaled back. Newly industrializing countries will face severe headwinds. It''s very difficult to become another China. This riled the US and caused it to turn on China with Bannon as the chief ideologue who went on a world mission to demonise China.

全球化将会缩小。新兴工业化国家将面临严重的逆境,很难再成为另一个中国。这激怒了美国,导致它把矛头对准了中国,班农作为主要理论家,在世界范围内妖魔化中国。

Is US a malevolent power or benevolent power?You be the judge.

美国是邪恶的力量还是仁慈的力量 ? 你来做评判。

Until the Civil Rights movement in the early 1960s, the Constitution did not protect the coloured races and black Americans. The country was built on slave labor until their emancipation in 1865. The railroad was built by Chinese coolie labor from Guangdong. When it was completed, Congress promptly passed the Chinese Exclusion Act (name speaks for itself, no explanation needed).

在 20 世纪 60 年代早期的民权运动之前,宪法并没有保护有色人种和美国黑种人。这个国家是建立在奴隶劳动之上的,直到 1865 年奴隶解放。这条铁路是由来自广东的中国苦力建造的。当法案完成后,国会迅速通过了排华法案 (名字不言自明,无需解释)。

中美未来 20 年关系如何演变?机遇与风险并存!

And the white Europeans settlers committed wholesale genocide of the native Americans. In 1830, at the request of the 7th President, Andrew Jackson (ex soldier and scoundrel) Congress passed theRed Indian Removal Act. The white Europeans wanted the rich farming land and the Act said all Indians must be relocated to the west of the Mississippi, inspite of treaties guaranteeing the IndIans reservation lands.

欧洲白人定居者对美洲原住民进行了大规模的种族灭绝。1830 年,应第七任总统的请求,安德鲁·杰克逊(前士兵和恶棍)国会通过了《印第安人迁移法》。白人欧洲人想要这块富饶的农田,法案说,所有的印第安人必须迁移到密西西比州西部,除了保证印第安人保留地的条约之外。

Those tribes that resisted were forcibly removed or killed. One of the tribes that resisted was the Cherokees. Many were killed, the rest were packed off to the Oklahoma territory, then empty waste land. Many resettled Indians died of starvation and diseases in areas where the land and climate were unfamiliar to them.

那些反抗的部落被强行迁移或杀害。抵抗的部落之一是切罗基人。许多人被杀,其余的被打包到俄克拉荷马州的领土,然后是空旷的荒地。许多重新定居的印第安人在他们不熟悉土地和气候的地区死于饥饿和疾病。

And then we have the Middle East and Vietnam where atrocities were committed. Whole sale bombing. Civilian deaths were brushed aside as collateral damage. My God, what a callous dismissal. Then we have the use of agent orange in Vietnam. Until today, 44 years after the Vietnam war, its effects are still be felt by the Vietnamese.

然后是中东和越南发生了暴行。为了甩卖炸弹,平民死亡被当作附带损害不予考虑。天哪,多么冷酷无情。然后我们在越南使用橙剂。直到今天,越战 44 年后,越南人仍能感受到战争的影响。

中美未来 20 年关系如何演变?机遇与风险并存!

Amazing that these protestors in Hong Kong are waving the old glory and singing the star spangled banner. Face it stupid Honks, the Americans don’t want you. They are using you as a pawn to destabilise China. Wake up, morons!

令人惊讶的是,(今天)香港的抗议者挥舞着星条旗,高唱荣誉的传承。但是面对这愚蠢的嘶吼,美国人不想要你。他们把你当作破坏中国稳定的棋子。醒醒,白痴!

7、Tommy Back

They are bound to loose. China''s isn''t Iran. China has other weapons against the sanctions: exporting infrastructure and low interest loans instead of wars. They just gotta convince puppet EU that China and Russia are better partners than USA.

(紧张状态)它们一定会松动的。中国不是伊朗。中国还有其他反对制裁的武器 : 出口基础设施和低息贷款,而不是战争。他们只是想让傀儡欧盟相信中国和俄罗斯是比美国更好的伙伴。

8、Sal Muri

Is that what happened to Port built by China in Sri Lanka??

所以这就是为何中国在斯里兰卡修建的港口的原因 ?

I don’t get you White Chinese supporters. Is it the new trend to support a country that is completely antithesis to your beliefs such as freedom of speech and freedom of religion.

我不明白你们这群支持中国的白人是怎么回事。支持一个与你的信仰如言论和宗教自由完全对立的国家是一种新趋势吗 ?

9、Tommy Back

Read up yourself. you are listening to much on American propaganda. Sri Lanka''s loans from China is only 10 % of all its loans. The port is leased for 99 years, not four military purposes, and gives SL a lot of cash. Do some fact checking before you scream

你自己才该多读读书,提升自己。你美国的宣传听太多了。来自中国的贷款仅占斯里兰卡全部贷款的 10%。这个港口租期为 99 年,没有军事用途,而且也给了斯里兰卡很多钱。在你尖叫之前做一些事实核查吧。

10、Mateus Mahumane

The EU can not chose friends to their liking, they are bound together with the US through NATO. US military bases are there to see to it that such thing does not happen.

欧盟不能随心所欲地选择朋友,他们通过北约与美国联系在一起。美国军事基地的存在确保这种事情不会发生。

中美未来 20 年关系如何演变?机遇与风险并存!

11、Brian Francis

No one knows the future for sure

没人知晓未来。

12、Heng H. Teo

I pretty much agree with everything you said here except one important fact.

我非常同意你(楼主)在这里所说的一切,除了一个重要的事实。

China invited US to join in the BRI (Belt & Road Initiative- the official name of this largest pan-nations project with as of todate 100+ countries signing at least an MOU as partners) and AIIB ( its funding arm with 93 countries as members) more than once.

中国多次邀请美国参与“一带一路”倡议和亚洲基础设施投资银行。“一带一路”是迄今为止 100 多个国家、至少签署了谅解备忘录的、泛国家项目的正式名称。

But the US not only refused, but even urged her allies not to, and some broke ranks, others not, such as Japan. However Japan seems to be reconsidering according to "reliable" sources. As for Hambota port of Sti Lanka, I think China made a naive mistake of trying to help out by agreeing post contract to take responsible for making the port viable through accepting Sri Lanka proposal offering 99 year lease as partial payment. But nobody listen to the facts when the narratives of the US propaganda is so eloquent and pervasive.

但美国不仅拒绝,甚至敦促其盟友不要这么做,有些国家打破了常规,有些国家则没有,比如日本。然而根据“可靠”消息来源,日本似乎正在重新考虑。至于斯里兰卡的汉班托塔港,我认为中国犯了一个错误,通过接受斯里兰卡提出的 99 年租赁作为部分付款的建议,同意了合同并负责使港口运作起来。但当美国的宣传是如此雄辩和无处不在时,没有人会注意到以上这些事实。

The Chinese are no match for the Western media in getting their media to saturate the vast majority readers'' mind. As a amusing side note to this, do you know which country''s business corporation (one energy company) benefiting from this port as of 2019? A very large Indian Corporation which has recently completed a energy depot a short distance away from the port along the Sri Lanka coast is making use of the port for its supply! Ironic that some Indian commentators who are ignorant of this fact, do not know one of their national energy company is using that port. There''s just so much ignorance around due to disinformation and misinformation.

在让自己的媒体渗透到绝大多数读者的头脑方面,中国人根本不是西方媒体的对手。顺便说点有趣的,你知道哪个国家的商业公司 (一家能源公司) 在 2019 年从这个港口受益吗 ? 一个非常大的印度公司最近完成了一个能源仓库,距离斯里兰卡海岸的港口很近,它正在利用这个港口供应能源 ! 具有讽刺意味的是,一些不知道这个事实的印度评论员,不知道他们一家国有能源公司正在使用那个港口。由于虚假信息和错误信息,导致了太多的无知。

中美未来 20 年关系如何演变?机遇与风险并存!

13、Charlie Li, Electrical engineer

With the development of China US relations at this speed, I can't see the future. Just as we tried to normalize relations with Russia in the 1990s, your opponent would say that you are a Russian agent, and your career would be ruined. Once again, the United States is on the same track, targeting China. Andrew Yang, for example, is accused of being a Chinese spy because he is Asian, although he is a fully naturalized citizen.

中美关系以这样的速度发展,我看不到未来。就像我们在上世纪 90 年代试图实现与俄罗斯关系正常化一样,你的对手会说你是俄罗斯特工,你的职业生涯也会被毁掉。美国再次站在同一条轨道上,瞄准中国。例如,安德鲁·杨被指控为中国间谍,因为他是亚洲人,尽管他是完全归化的公民。

In addition the amount of fear mongering against China as been incredible in the past few years. Chinese American scientists who can be the workhorse of universities and research institutes are routinely under scrutiny. Some have had their titles and honors stripped based on only suspicion.

此外,过去几年来,针对中国的恐慌情绪之多令人难以置信。华裔科学家可以成为大学和研究机构的主力军,他们经常受到审查。有些人仅仅因为怀疑就剥夺了他们的头衔和荣誉。

14、Elm Shea

Sadly much of what you say is true. The demonization of China/Chinese has long history in the west rooted in ‘Yellow Peril’ racism which continues to this day.

令人难过的是,你说的很多都是真的。对中国 / 中国人的妖魔化在西方有着悠久的历史,根源于“黄祸”种族主义,至今仍在继续。

15、Dwight Gray

I forsee trials and tribulations.Our pisiveness is killing us. Couple that with another superpower apprenticing for world dominance.For the entirety of its existence. The U.S. has sought, and achieved global economic dominance, often by spurious means, all in the name of the allmighty dollar.

我预见了考验和磨难。我们的分歧正在扼杀我们。再加上另一个大国正在为世界霸主地位做学徒。它存在的全部,美国以万能美元的名义,通过经常是虚假的手段,寻求并取得了全球经济主导地位。

Wars and conflicts for what?

战争和冲突是为了什么 ?

Leadership degraded into corporate agendas…….

领导能力退化成了公司的议事日程。

We lost our way.

我们迷失了方向。

China has found theirs……..!

中国则找到了他们自己的方向!

中美未来 20 年关系如何演变?机遇与风险并存!

虽然,对于美国网友“Elm Shea”对于当前美国的种种抱怨究竟是否属实,老铁也不能给出准确的意见,但是对于他提出的一点意见,老铁却表示十分赞同:

中国则找到了他们自己的方向!

是的,这是当前每一个中国人都毫不怀疑的事实:

我们正确的找到了自己的方向,我们的国家,走在高速发展的大道!

来源链接:mp.weixin.qq.com